August 21st, 2010 Posted in fengkuang | Comments Off
The gold market, rise. With the recent economic data released than expected, the federal reserve funds out partial loose policy factors, gold “hard currency” charm, the international gold fast life again on a high of $123 an ounce, and ZhouXinGao seven.
Traditional gold demand in September, the peak in October, just to August, the price is rising quickly, whether that means “jin jiuyin 10″ offensive start ahead? If the future price will be broken record?
Recent high price rises, creating channel remains
Price movements, the second half in 2010 after entering appear more elusive. In the first half of this year, the global gold to beat the world market, and an attitude entering in July, gold, in Europe has plunged suddenly turn debt crisis sovereignty, under the background of the global gold, once fell down echo $11.6, creating 3 months.
But in August, the gold market, and suddenly a flagging continuously advance interior changes happen. Gold than expected in U.S. employment data stimulation, instantly retrieve $1200 per ounce. Then, to Beijing for concussion rise early time on August 19, New York, gold futures again in seven weeks at the highest level since.
The New York mercantile exchange (NYMEX) December delivery of gold futures prices, at $euro3.10 to 1231.40 dollars per ounce, 0.3%, its highest level in seven weeks, but also on the $123 again.
China’s gold investment analysts qualification review committee, said zhou, currently has high oscillation period into gold, main influencing factors of gold is macro economic data changes, the flow of funds, so gold mainly embodies the financial attribute, the price will be very frequent. “But is concerned about the recent high price after receive investor profit taking activity, can quickly agent, actually.” after high-risk
His analysis, at present the gold market, from a technical perspective, the uplink channel or no change trend upward. Fundamentally, the world economy is not out of the shadows, countries in economy. The only channel is to stimulate the economy increase credit investment. “In other words, the more money will cause inflation expectations. Gold as a hedge, avoid the risk of hard currency rises, still can have the opportunity.”
Five factors as a high price “push”
The international gold in a fast, after the fall, appear suddenly surged backhand erratic. Futures ShiLiang analysts think, this is the JinShi remarkable characteristic of all sorts of macroeconomic factors extremely sensitive changes. He thinks, at present has five factors pushing up gold:
First, the fed, maintaining high get loose gold. The discussion of concern, support meeting in order to maintain the current economic recovery, the quantization of the same intensity will expire, loose the institution of the principal creditor and mortgage debt to purchase long-term national debt, it is the monetary easing disguised, may cause dollar rebounded high price, and support thwarted long term, a weaker dollar, gold under the background of “hard currency” effect could be adored.
Secondly, the global economy and the way to recovery still twists and turns. American non-farm payrolls report and other important economic data, restrain investors than expected for global economic recovery, the fed expectations of momentum KaiZha “water” is based on the economic recovery rate is lower than expected, the judge will continue, the gold market turmoil in “havens” advantage.
Third, global inflation risk cannot small gaze. In different countries under the background of economic stimulus package, inflation expectations are growing, Russia and Brazil, India has been emerging economies inflation risks, and Europe and developed economies also begins to control inflation expectations, the risk is still visible. And gold as natural against inflation tools, may be adored.
Fourth, the global capital gold trend appears chase. In July, the global gold gold decline continues, selling the fund of gold and play a key role. But recent with gold, and rising up funds focus of gold. Global biggest Gold ETF – SPDR herein-described, said the latest position of Trust 7.941 tons, increase since August 12, 1286.69 tons of rose to 1294.64 tons.
Fifth, the traditional physical gold demand season nears. In September and October, India, the world’s largest gold consumer will have a series of traditional festivals, will increase the gold consumption demand, it is the high price of a factor.
How to walk, gold price how investment?
Since 2008, since the global financial crisis, as most concern gold in the adjustment of assets, continuously rising up, creating another record in the first half, once per ounce 1261 record $. So, in the global economic situation more complex in the second half, whether to go where gold and gold investment chance?
Socgen gold analyst JiangShu that, since this year, since the second half of the gold market has presented many changes, such as the first European main support high debt crisis of gold and cut panic suddenly, gold “havens” ebb, gold rapidly effect once plummeted. But with the recent American economic recovery of uncertainty, global inflation expectations, gold and strong strengthened. “From the basic surface, as long as they don’t appear significantly undermined by the trend of global economy, market confidence will have a high price fluctuation, to change the situation of short-term.
He points out that recent gold investment, need some special signal as the second quarter GDP and non-farm payrolls figures below market expectations that global economic recovery again concerns, but recent German prospect in the second quarter of GDP in market expectations, should help to euro market, but the confidence of the strong dollar that market for global economic recovery process suspensions concerns. “Especially recently presented with gold and dollar rose again, so a trend for gold predictions that market forces to abate, the global economic worries appear to warming in the market turmoil, the price may be difficult to $1,200 below.”
JinShi with high temperature, and further to see that new breakthroughs in 1980, the sound has not at the market. Such as Goldman sachs predicted gold will hit $1,300 bank, see high price will reach $1400.
But the personage inside course of study also pointed out that at present higher price trend, gold investment risk, there are still at risk, and recent callback price fluctuation of up to $70, future will be normal fluctuations. To buy low and sell high participation by the price, make investment way, careless operation is easy to be secure.
For the average investor, gold is very good family dispersed risk assets, will be the tool to appropriate proportion of assets held for gold ZhongChangXian form, all the “.”
Reporter learned from China’s gold price rises, despite recent large, but gold sales very stable. “In July and August is the traditional gold off-season, but on Shanghai area sales more than 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10% to 15%, and the monthly sales more than 10 zhongjin system that billion yuan, domestic gold investment demand is growing steadily. China’s gold at the Shanghai gold company official said.
He said, for the average investor, gold value is not much, can rise in profit, but whether “, “have already in family portfolio.